![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
khaosworksBest friend Logam, during our regular Saturday evening get-together, is betting that the war will start sometime next week, as the warmongers can't wait too long before the temperature starts going up and it's too hot to attack. I can't say he's wrong - part of me is thinking that the US will go ahead, with or without British assistance, and present the conquest of Iraq as a fait accompli and sort out the international ramifications later.
As far as I can see, Bush is in a Catch-22 situation. If the US pulls out now, after it's been so committed, then it will lose face in the eyes of the world - in particular, Saddam will be laughing. If the US proceeds, however, then it will have to face the world saying that the war is in violation of international law and deal with the political fallout arising thereof. Given these choices, Bush might just say go ahead, since that is the path of least resistance and the one that is more likely to produce dividends (a compliant Iraq, no more Saddam, control of the oil), damn the adverse consequences to foreign relations.
What worries me, really, is exactly what will happen post-war. The Bush administration isn't talking to the Council on Foreign Relations about how much the reconstruction of Iraq will cost - maybe $100 billion over the next five years? Will Iraq descend into civil war as pro-Saddam forces start an underground? Will Iran take advantage of the chaos to "reinforce" their borders and take a chunk out of Iraq in the bargan? Will Al-Qaeda actually retaliate? Or will Saddam's forces do so with a domestic terrorist attack?
Politically, what will happen to Bush? Will the war be long and protracted, or short and sharp? What will the war, and reconstruction of Iraq, do to the US economy? Will Bush ride this to win a new election or will the aftermath of the war tarnish like it did to his father after the 1991 Gulf War? How will the UN react? What will the UN's position be once the US has gone ahead and declared war unilaterally without its backing? Will the rest of the world cut the US off? Will it be business as usual? How long will it take to repair relations, if at all?
As Jim Morrison said, "the future's uncertain, and the end is very near"...
Let it roll, baby, roll. Taking bets, please.
As far as I can see, Bush is in a Catch-22 situation. If the US pulls out now, after it's been so committed, then it will lose face in the eyes of the world - in particular, Saddam will be laughing. If the US proceeds, however, then it will have to face the world saying that the war is in violation of international law and deal with the political fallout arising thereof. Given these choices, Bush might just say go ahead, since that is the path of least resistance and the one that is more likely to produce dividends (a compliant Iraq, no more Saddam, control of the oil), damn the adverse consequences to foreign relations.
What worries me, really, is exactly what will happen post-war. The Bush administration isn't talking to the Council on Foreign Relations about how much the reconstruction of Iraq will cost - maybe $100 billion over the next five years? Will Iraq descend into civil war as pro-Saddam forces start an underground? Will Iran take advantage of the chaos to "reinforce" their borders and take a chunk out of Iraq in the bargan? Will Al-Qaeda actually retaliate? Or will Saddam's forces do so with a domestic terrorist attack?
Politically, what will happen to Bush? Will the war be long and protracted, or short and sharp? What will the war, and reconstruction of Iraq, do to the US economy? Will Bush ride this to win a new election or will the aftermath of the war tarnish like it did to his father after the 1991 Gulf War? How will the UN react? What will the UN's position be once the US has gone ahead and declared war unilaterally without its backing? Will the rest of the world cut the US off? Will it be business as usual? How long will it take to repair relations, if at all?
As Jim Morrison said, "the future's uncertain, and the end is very near"...
Let it roll, baby, roll. Taking bets, please.
no subject
I'm not a betting man, but I expect a fairly short war followed by a long occupation accompanied by worldwide terrorism against American targets. It's anybody's guess whether Palestine or Korea decides to take advantage of that.
If Saddam uses his stockpiles of anthrax, etc. the war might still be short, but the casualties will be higher, especially among the civilian population. Or he might just have them shipped out of the country beforehand and distributed to the terrorists.
And don't expect them to find the body. Count on Saddam to join Osama, Jimmy Hoffa, and Elvis; we'll be chasing rumors of signtings long after he's dead.